FUTURE OF THE CAUCASUS
By
Aydin Nurhan
Ambassador (r)

Post WW II order is down. The world is heading towards chaos.
The new order will take long time, perhaps after a new war to shuffle dominance.
Sailing in such global storm, what strategy for our little but indispensable region? The Caucasus?

First, let us see the importance of the Caucasus:
Caucasus is the Gate of Asia to Europe.
Caucasus is the Gate of Europe to Asia.
Caucasus is the vital strategic ”Turkic Gate” uniting Turkic Civilisation.

Economically, it is the ”liberal” transit line from Beijing to London.
First, with vital energy lines.
Second, with Belt and Road Project, railways and highways.

To top our strategic start, let us see what Zbigniew Brzezinski says about the Caucasus in ”The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives”.
He says Eurasia is the geopolitical center of the world, and the Caucasus is the volatile Center of Eurasia.
Caucasus and Central Asia (the Caspian region) are “Eurasian Balkans” — a strategically crucial region full of ethnic conflict, fragile states, and great power rivalries.
It is a buffer zone between Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
And his advice to Western countries:
U.S. should prevent Russia from reasserting dominance over the former Soviet republics, including Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Maintaining Western presence and influence in the Caucasus, is central to preserving the geopolitical balance of power in Eurasia.
If the West loses influence in the Caucasus, access to Central Asia is diminished, while Russia and China’s influence could grow.
West should avoid overcommitment, but ensure geopolitical pluralism in the region to prevent any single power from dominating it.

Now;
Why I started with reference to Brzezinski, is that he gives us the Western mindset, a global outlook from Western point of view.
The lesson? Western intrusion in the Caucasus is a continuing reality.

Now, take Russian point of view:
A Century is passed, Turks still cannot overcome the pain of losing an empire. How can the Russians? A little empathy would help us realize Russian sentiments for the region. Time works, and Russian influence in its former territories naturally diminish. Since nature does not like vacuums, other interested parties shall try to replace Russian influence in the region. Hence we should expect competition between Russia, West, Turkiye, China and Iran for influence on the Caucasus.
Not only influence. Russia is the most practical transit route between China and Europe. An open, ”liberal” Caucasian transit system would naturally challenge its interests. Hence it would try to be against it. Yet here is a dilemma. Fighting with Ukraine, it would not want another fire in the Caucasus. And Western block would ignite fire both to block Turkic connection and keep Russia engaged in Caucasian fire. Wise Russia? Bear with the pain, accept new realities, cooperate with Turkiye for a peaceful, stable Caucasus.

And our quest; the future of the Caucasus.
First and foremost, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan want peace and stability in the region. It is their only option. If they try to call in great powers, it would be their disaster. And a disaster for the Caucasus. A great power comes in not for them, but for its ruthless strategic interests. So the first lesson: The states of the Caucasus, which we can call the Benelux of the Caucasus, should realize the ultimate need. To solve their problems among themselves, vehemently opposing external involvement. And promptly. Any delay especially in Azerbaijan – Armenia Peace Process is a mortal mistake, giving great powers enough time to plan new troubles for the region.

As for Turkiye..
As declining powers would be dangerous and trigger instability, rising powers want peace, stability and free trade, not only regionally, but globally. Turkiye a rising power, wants peace in the region, and in the global village. And is the sincerest State championing peace in the region. Her strategic interest also urges it for a peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, so that through Georgia and Armenia, the Caucasus shall be wide-open all the way to Turkic world.
After Soviet collapse, Karabagh war was instigated to block pan-Turkic union through Armenia. Today, strategically, a Turkic union, let us say in European Union style, would be a nightmare for the West, for Russia, and for China which not only wants Eastern Russia, but the whole of Turkic Central Asia. To ease their worries, we can say that a Turkic Union is a far dream for the time being.
For Iran..
We used to say Turkiye is Asia’s gate to Europe and Iran is Europe’s gate to Asia. Iran still has the monopoly in European and Turkish transit trade with Asia. Now the Caucasus is taking stage, Iran is openly declaring Zangezur corridor as a strategic red line for her. Iran in its present situation, is not in a position to block peace in the Caucasus, especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Wise Iran? Erdogan offers 3+3 plan, a peace project between three Caucasian states which we can call Caucasian Benelux, plus Turkiye, Russia and Iran. A plan with which the West would lose its manipulation opportunities in the region.

For Armenia..
First! Pashinyan is the best chance for Armenia. He faces a herculean task to clear the obstacles in front of Armenia. Let us look at them:
Karabagh issue.
Rhetoric of ”1915 Genocide”
Russian vassalate
French foothold in the Caucasus
Brzezinsky’s strategic baby
Iran’s strategic partner
Armenian diaspora’s toy to play with
Being among the world’s poorest economies
Population loss
Internal sociopolitical challenges
Our readers may add two more to match the twelve tasks of Herakles 
Yet Pashinyan’s tasks seeming Herculean, are much easier than the ones Herakles had to overcome.
He needs just one key: Peace with Azerbaijan. And Pashinyan saw where the key was.
The moment the peace treaty is signed, Turkiye will be backing Armenian recovery with full force, with sincerity. Estimates are, in just three years, Armenia shall be much different than what it is now. Opening of Turkish and Azerbaijani gates to Armenia and cooperation with them shall mean a golden opportunity for the region as a whole.
Delay is a mortal option playing into the hands of manipulators. Time is a vital factor. Be quick for peace.

For Georgia..
Like Armenia, Georgia is not yet safe from Russian abuses. Abkhazia and South Ossetia under Russian control, are the points of instability in the region. Georgia is a good example for former Soviet Republics in haste of escaping Russian dominance. ”Time” is the keyword. Diminishing Russian influence and dominance in the region INDEED IS a reality. Yet trying to accelerate the process especially with Western encouragement is a recipe for disaster. Wise Georgia: Be patient.

And lastly, Azerbaijan..
The victor with the higher hand in peace negotiations. Shaking off the psychological burden of losing Karabagh, and with full confidence of retaking it, Azerbaijan has an advantageous position in the peace process. She played a skillful diplomacy with Russia during Karabagh war. And Pashinyan seems to have accepted most of Azerbaijan’s requests in peace negotiations.
Where are we now?
Pashinyan has serious problems at home, Azerbaijan does not have the honeymoon with Moscow anymore.
The key word for the Caucasus?
TIME!
No time to lose. Both countries should realize this reality. Sign your Treaty SASPO!
For the sake of your young generations.
For the sake of peace in the region.